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Thursday, 28 June 2007

Falling School Rolls?

You can prove anything with statistics, or so it's said.

DCC have said that, as school rolls are falling, that puts the continuing need for Combs School in question. Their projection for pupils on the school roll is:

2007: 25
2008: 24
2009: 21
2010: 24
2011: 23

That doesn't look much like a dramatic fall, does it? In any case, it's inaccurate. We've surveyed the area to find out the correct figures.

DCC's comment about the model they use is, "The Pupil Projection Model produces base figures and does not take into account local circumstances that may affect the pupil population at each school."

So there must be some margin of error involved, but it's not stated. Bad statistics?

We'll be giving DCC an account of the local circumstances, so that their projection of the school roll can be corrected.

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